Global Warmers are copying many of the propaganda techniques originally developed in Germany seventy years ago
A lesson in how to spin a story and kill a real message is being given as Global Warmers try to spin the United Nations study into climate change.
Propagandists have found that it is very convenient to wrap all sorts of things together under the banner of Global Warming. In the process, they have been creating a new religion where belief is more important than fact. Any report that threatens this new faith is very unwelcome, even if it carries a real message. It is treated as heresy and heretics are to be ruthlessly stamped out.
The United Nations is the logical forum to discuss international issues, commission independent studies and formulate international agreements
The UN study into climate change has come up with some statements and conclusions that are in line with the more authoritative researchers’ views of what is happening. In parts the report agrees with some of the new beliefs, but it also disagrees.
The report concludes that we are in a continuing period of climate change. This is almost a statement of the obvious. Climate change has always been a reality of life on Earth, but it strikes to the heart of the new belief, which claims that climate change is entirely due to pollution caused by burning fossil fuel, particularly in vehicle engines.
Climate change has been a continuing factor in the history of the Earth as cycles move from one extreme to another over a lengthy period.
There are broad cycles that may run for millions of years, but we have no way of knowing how long they last because we do not have enough data. Our existing knowledge comes from examination of ice cores and from geological study. This takes us back hundreds of millions of years, but only in narrow snapshots from a relatively small number of locations. Findings from these studies are hotly debated by academics because they provide many conflicting views and rely heavily on theories.
Within each broad cycle, there are a series of other shorter cycles layered one on top of another. The lower layers may still cover hundreds of thousands of years, but the shorter cycles may only extend for decades. Although decade cycles are within living memory, we have little idea of how they are modified by the underlying longer cycles because these are not only beyond living memory, but beyond recorded history.
Even regional weather forecasting is not totally accurate for periods more than a few hours ahead of the forecast
We are now beginning to understand the shortest cycles but depend on two forms of information. One form is written records that extend back only a few hundred years. The further back these records go, the smaller the area that is being sampled. Three hundred years ago a number of isolated individuals recorded climatic conditions in much the same way that modern weather forecasters do, recording temperature, moisture, wind speed and direction, and other visible components of climate. Over the last three hundred years the number of people recording weather conditions has increased with ever-greater speed, the detail recorded increasing as equipment becomes more sophisticated.
Computer-based technology is reducing the cost of building weather stations to the point where it is practical to install a home weather station that is highly automated and maintains records that can be processed to provide local trend information
Today we have thousands of measuring stations in virtually every country. These are linked together with each other and with sensor information from satellites. The modern methods of recording, and analysing, information from censors is only a few decades old. Where it is used for weather forecasting, it demonstrates how fragile our knowledge of climate really is. Even with the aid of very complex computer models, and data from many different sources, weather forecasters only achieve a reasonable level of accuracy when forecasting in general terms a few hours ahead. Five-day forecasts are often inaccurate and longer forecasts are frequently little better than guesses. The accuracy varies according to the geographical area. Forecasting that it will be dry and hot for months ahead is not too difficult for areas of desert. Forecasting heavy rain in tropical rain forests is also reasonably easy. Forecasting in temperate zones where weather is traditionally changeable is difficult even a few days ahead. Given all of these examples of our fragile knowledge, it is a great leap of faith to believe any computer model, of climate change, that claims to predict accurately what conditions will be in a hundred years.
To this recent history of weather measurement, we can add the information collected by navigators in their pilots up to five hundred years ago. In the age before modern navigation by fixing latitude and longitude, sailors needed to find ways of locating their position with reasonable accuracy. One method was to write a pilot as a personal and secret diary of the navigator. In this book the seaman recorded the colour of the water and the presence of any material, such as vegetation. Details of winds and storms were recorded, often with detailed sketches. The very secret nature of these pilots has meant that few have survived to be analysed today. Of those that survive, they provide intriguing views into narrow samples of climatic conditions at sea during narrow time windows.
The UN study has pointed out that we might assume a specific rise in temperature during the next five years, if we assume that it is a trend continuing from the measurement of the previous five years. Their model suggests a lower rate of increase than the figure claim by the wilder papers from the true believers. However, it is a forecast based on variable data and techniques so that it may be inaccurate in either direction.
We often over estimate our ability to change the World. Infrared photographs of urban heat output look impressive but are dwarfed relatively by nature
Where the report has really upset the true believers in the new faith is in its analysis of the sources of methane and CO2 production. The report points out that man-made pollution is a very small percentage of total production, dwarfed by that produced by cattle. The significance of these conclusions is not just that an increasingly popular faith is debunked in one of its cardinal convictions, but that it demonstrates that even the total elimination of power stations, vehicles and aircraft is unlikely to achieve any significant change in climate. It also shows that the countries, where belief in the new faith is strongest, and where we can assume the earliest and most effective action will be taken to limited human production, have a total annual production of pollution that is less than the annual growth in production by China and India. To maintain any given level in global production, the rest of the world would have to totally cease production to cancel the increase from China and India for that year.
The high priests of the new faith of Global Warming are already desperately attempting to rubbish the UN report because it does not agree completely with the Gospel according to the Global Warmers, but this is very unfortunate. Countries like China and India are enjoying the same Industrial Revolution that Britain enjoyed in the Eighteenth Century and the United States enjoyed in the Nineteenth Century. They are also moving rapidly in becoming Consumer Societies where marketing techniques are used to create desire to consume rather than producing to meet need. It would be unreasonable for the rest of the world to expect them to forego the short-term benefits for their people that derive from this industrial and economic revolution.
The Sun is the engine of our planetary system
We now know enough from scientific observation to know that beyond human influence, which is much less than we like to believe, the engine of our planetary system is a nuclear fusion reactor that we call the Sun. This star is running on its own primary cycle, which is estimated to be eight to twelve billion years. It is already half way through this estimated cycle. At some point in the second half, it will have expanded and begun the elimination of all life within the solar system. Long before that point, it will have made life on Earth extremely difficult as global temperatures rise dramatically.
The power of earthquakes and volcanos is fantastic and so is the pollution!!
Even before the overall temperature levels become very uncomfortable, seriously affecting food production and water supplies, the Earth will go through a period of volcanic instability. We now know that there is a relationship between global temperature and volcanic activity and earthquakes. During a period of greatly increased activity two things happen. Tsunami sweep coastlines, devastating some of the most populous areas on Earth, and volcanos belch out in days more pollutants than man has produced in total during more than ten thousand years of civilization. Unfortunately we do not yet understand the mechanisms and the cycles for change.
To the more apocryphal probabilities of solar behaviour, we have to consider the subordinate cycles. The sun will not have proceeded in a single smooth cycle from birth through adulthood to death. There will be other cycles and we already recognise the cycles of solar flares which have a direct impact on weather patterns on Earth.
Our planet is a small target for incoming debris but impacts do happen
In addition, we know now that the Earth is periodically struck by large pieces of space debris. This may run in cycles but we do not have enough data to even attempt a vague prediction. Although there is still debate between academics it is now increasingly accepted that a major Extinction Level Event was created by a large piece of space debris impacting in the area of the Gulf of Mexico. This impact caused major shock that directly affected much of the continent of America, caused tsunami that affected coastlines around the Atlantic and to lesser extent over much of the total ocean area of the Earth, created a secondary event greater than the worst estimates for nuclear winter, where the Sun was blacked out by airborne pollutants for hundreds of years, and where most species of life were extinguished almost immediately, but to the benefit of small mammals.
So far we have ventured no further than the Moon but that first tentative space to another world will be followed by bolder voyages
Taking the existing knowledge of Earth study, we could assume that anything man does is insignificant against the forces of nature. We could use that as an excuse for doing nothing about man-made pollution and damage to the planet. In cosmological terms that is a defensible view. We should be frantically increasing our efforts to explore and colonize planets throughout the Universe and beyond, on the basis that it may be much later than we think.
This will be such a monumental endeavour, dwarfing anything that man has done before, that the sooner we begin, the better for the survival of our species. It will be such a costly endeavour that it will inevitably mean that short cuts will have to be taken, and that these will increase pollution in various forms. However, a long view makes this unavoidable because every species is driven to expand and be forced into new environments, adapting through evolution in the process. If we can seriously think decades and centuries ahead we should also now be able to think thousands of years ahead and continue our quest for new technologies and ideas.
If we do agree that the strategic destiny of man is in the colonization of new worlds, and that nature is vastly more powerful, there is no reason why we should not enjoy an improving lifestyle in the short term and act considerately. The difficulty is that many important steps are socially unacceptable. The greatest contribution man could make, to improve the ecological situation, would be to limit the total number of births and to then plan for a reduction in the world’s population. That may come naturally through war, volcanic activity, starvation, or disease, but we cannot plan on that basis. Unfortunately those countries that are contributing most to population growth and human pollution are still most in need of manpower, and culturally resistant to smaller families.
We could reduce pollution by draconian limits on marketing. This would reduce the consumption through manipulated desire but in the short term could trigger a global economic collapse. Even a plan to manufacture a wide range of products that are less polluting is extremely difficult, not least because it would result in a major slow down in the development of new technologies, reducing our ability to explore the Universe.
Politicians have already begun to exploit the new religion. Britain is in the forefront of this new trend. The national socialist regime of Blair and Brown has been quick to rush out a complete new family of taxes that will do little to affect climate change but much to refresh an exchequer, fast being impoverished by reckless and incompetent State spending. The great danger of this enormous rise in taxation is that it will trigger national financial collapse. That in turn would then start a process of global economic collapse. Pollution might be reduced in some countries as a direct result of recession but it is just as likely that it will be more than offset by poorer people buying cheaper products that are more polluting.
Maybe the only answer is to take a more proportional response. We can each improve the situation by developing more considerate habits and avoiding desire driven consumption. We can choose to consume less in every area of life without reducing our lifestyle. Eating less and exercising more reduces a range of illness and disability, but it also reduces the demand on health care services. Choosing not to litter is not that hard, although it may require some encouragement for some governments to abandon fines and prohibition in favour of providing adequate waste collection and disposal services. Citizens are generally much more responsible that many politicians credit, but their support can only be held by politicians taking their snouts out of the trough long enough to provid good governance, returning to a culture where politicians serve rather than attempt to rule and exploit. That does of course require politicians to be able to exercise common sense and to encourage, by example, reasonable behaviour. Many current politicians may be unable to do that and we all carry the responsibility for driving them from office and voting in responsible and reasonable public servants.
At the same time we must learn to question more deeply. The new religion of Global Warming is served by high priests, who are neither reasonable, nor responsible. They promote sound-bite propaganda and idiot simple solutions to non-problems.
There are many examples but the graphic example is the hybrid-powered vehicle that is being adopted with great enthusiasm by politicians. The vehicle, as a general structure, is exactly the same as any previous combustion engine vehicle. It uses the same materials for the main structure and therefore offers exactly the same pollution footprint for that general structure. It has a combustion engine that is usually exactly the same size as a similar traditional vehicle. It then has special batteries and electric motors, which introduce addition pollution through their manufacture, and special requirements in their eventual disposal. The vehicle is considerably more complex, and some informed estimates show a much shorter productive life. That means that more vehicles will be produced, and require disposal, increasing pollution challenges. The only area that the hybrid can claim to offer benefits is in reduced operation of the combustion engine in urban stop-go traffic. However, a similar benefit could be achieved with a traditional vehicle by fitting a relatively simple system that automatically switches off the engine when the vehicle parking brake is applied and restarts the engine when the driver wishes to move off again. By developing more efficient engines that require less fuel to power a vehicle, that is lighter because it does not require heavy batteries, can mean that a traditional vehicle offers far less pollution than a hybrid-powered vehicle.
There are a wealth of heavily promoted new products that are claimed to be environmentally friendly but are, in reality, environmentally hostile. Badly positioned wind turbines increase pollution. Idiotic waste disposal recycling schemes are more polluting and the list goes on. A great deal of unnecessary and polluting practice is being introduced because we do not question the high priests of Global Warming and because they attack reasonable reports that attempt to be independent and avoid false claims.