[Note: this posting was held for 30 hours by a technical difficulty] Its always wise to look carefully through anything the Blair Brown Regime says. The reality the next day is always different from the apparent content on the day of propaganda release. What is being attempted is nothing less than a coupe where the voters are the losers.
Until Bottler Brown has packed his bags and run away, it is too early to accept any claims he may make about resigning.
Yesterday’s announcement was the result of two coupes. One was led by the unelected Mandelson and Campbell. This was matched by a coupe led by the greatly over rated Whig Vince Cable. How far Nick Clog was implicated in the Whig party process is still unknown – he is either a deeply dishonest individual with no concern for the British National Interest, or he is a useless figurehead manipulated by others.
There is a possibility that both Bottler Brown and Nick Clog will resign later this year. Both will resist. If they fail, there is the prospect of Britain being ruled by two party leaders who have never presented themselves as Leaders at a General Election, having even less legitimacy that the Coalition of Losers currently struggles to claim.
Bottler is hoping that by staying where he is he will present a Queen’s Speech, the economy will improve during the next five months, or a major terrorist outrage will take place, allowing him to step up and claim that although he intended to resign, events have moved on and no one else is capable of being Prime Minister.
The difficulty facing the Whig insurgents is that any attempt to force a formal resignation by Brown this week will require him to resign as Prime Minister. For that reason they have accepted his insistence on remaining as Labour Leader and Prime Minister until the Labour Party rules allow a successor to be anointed. Brown is suggesting that this means he must remain as Prime Minister until October. He has so far prevented the possible successors from starting their campaigns. There is no reason to believe that the process will run smoothly or to any kind of schedule.
The difficulty facing Bottler is that he will eventually have to give Parliament the opportunity to vote on something and, if he is defeated, and a subsequent vote of confidence goes against him, the pack of cards falls down and he must ask the Queen to dissolve Parliament to allow a new General Election to take place. If that happens before he forces a change of voting system through, the voters may well vent their anger and emasculate the Labour Party and the Whigs, bringing in a Tory Government with a very strong mandate.
It is possible to argue that a desperate man has nothing to lose by high risk gambling which is what the current mess is. However, this is not the only reason. Mandelson and Campbell both know that the Blair Brown Regime has been unable to shred all the evidence of malpractice. The moment the Tories get sight of the documents from the last thirteen years many very bad things could start to happen to the malefactors. Once out of power the Labour party could cease to exist – the stakes really are that high.
There are several wild cards. The only slim credibility for a Coalition of Losers depends on all the other parties joining against the Tories and Sinn Fein IRA continuing their traditional avoidance of taking their seats. It also depends on the failure of the small group of Labour MPs with integrity to defect to the Tories, or simply abstain from voting with the Coalition of Losers. It should not be overlooked that there are some Whigs with integrity who may not be able to tolerate the current situation and could fail to support the Coalition of Losers, even to defect to another party.
There are up to seventy Labour MPs who might fail to vote with the Coalition of Losers for various different reasons. A smaller number might abstain or vote against in a Vote of Confidence, so forcing a new General Election.
Some estimates claim up to fifteen Labour MPs would either defect or find a series of creative reasons for not being available to go through the lobbies to support the Coalition of Losers.
A large number of Labour MPs are controlled by the Unions and a series of strikes is now possible, the first to be announced being the BA cabin crew walkouts.
The Celtic parties may prove loyal to Brown if he throws enough extra money their way and concentrates on taxing the English further. That could in turn create many uncertainties because the English are already over taxed to allow vote buying in Wales, Scotland and Ireland before the recent General Election. A major revolt is increasingly likely.
There is also no certainty that Sinn Fein IRA will fail to take up their seats at Westminster. They may be forced to attend to counter the advantage their competitors would be offered to vote in the Coalition of Losers. Sinn Feign IRA has proved to be a shrewd political force, never really giving up all of the paramilitaries but toning their activies down far enough to claim innocence. It could prove in their political interests to take their seats at Westminster and vote against the Coalition of Losers to strengthen their position after the next General Election. Although the Tories might be unable to formally work with Sinn Feign IRA, they could not stop them voting against the Coalition of Losers and would benefit from the process.
The unfortunate aspect is that while all of this political wrestling continues the British look increasingly unlikely to establish a strong Government before November if at all. As investors and speculators become less interested in the wreckage of Greece, they will start to see advantage in forcing down Sterling and raising the cost of British Government borrowing. That may start ot happen this week and some are already pointing out that the confidence graph has started to move into a rapid fall, with the weakening of Sterling against the US$ proving the point. That there has been some improvement against the Euro says far more for the huge dangers awaiting the Eurozone.