Aerospace Raw Materials Forecast


A recent update of the Aerospace Raw Material Forecast first published last year by AeroStrategy shows many changes in the future aerospace materials market directly related to the economic downturn:

* Aircraft production is declining as a result of the global recession and the financial crisis; the business & general aviation sector will be hit the hardest
* Total aerospace material “buy weight” is 950 million lbs in 2008; 45% is aluminum
* The air transport sector accounts for 68% of raw material demand
* Underlying demand for several key metals will decline 10-13% compared to the recent production peak. This does not factor in the impact of inventory overhang (estimated at 12 months or more for some key materials) and reduction throughout the aerospace supply chain, which could result in a significantly greater reduction in demand for some suppliers in the near term
* Total raw material demand is projected to increase at a 4.5% CAGR through 2019; titanium and composites will grow the fastest

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