Will German arrogance and dithering result once again in Europe in flames? As Reich Kanzler Merkel demands to lead, but fails to provide leadership, the EuroZone infection spreads even to Germany.
After six years of dithering and hoping the problems would solve themselves, the EuroZone nations are having to face up to the probability that the Euro will cease to exist. Some commentators still believe that this will take another three years of economic misery but the situation is developing rapidly with markets losing confidence in France and now in Germany. This means that it is now probably too late for Merkel to benefit from British Prime
Minister Cameron’s advice and make the European Central Bank the bank of last resort.
The great danger for the EuroZone is that the markets would eventually realize that no part of the EuroZone was a safe haven. As long as the fiction of a hugely powerful Germany building a Forth Reich persisted, the Euro had breathing space. That fiction is now dissolving.
Only eight months ago there was a possibility that Ireland, Greece and Portugal might be forced out of the Euro to save the prudent EuroZone members. Commentators who had been following the disaster for six years were convinced that these countries would be forced out and were looking closely at Italy and Spain as possible candidates for expulsion. The Eurocrats continued to maintain that it was all a non-event and no one would leave the Euro, rather that the remaining EU countries outside the EuroZone would plead for admittance and the strength of rule by Germany.
In spite of all Eurocrat protestations and propaganda the train wreck has been unfolding in slow motion and this week marked the point where the contagion spread firmly into the German economy with a humiliating failure to auction all available bonds.
Had the Euro Zone accepted the reality and begun a serious restructuring, as late as March 2011, time would have been bought for an orderly default of the most seriously over-committed EuroZone economies and the EuroZone might have held at 12 members. From there it might have been possible to begin rebuilding the Euro as a serious and prudent currency and attracting new members.
It now seems most unlikely that the Euro will survive in any form and each EuroZone country will be forced to readopt a national currency and begin the long road back to sustainability. In the process no one will win, apart from a few shrewd currency speculators.
The next question will be the survival of the EU. The Eurocrats are still confident on their home planet that everything is going very well, the EUSSR will be formed and dominate the world. That looks like a case of insanity. Britain is moving closer to leaving the EU completely and plans are already well advanced to build new international and economic relationships after the Euro implodes. A number of other countries are already working on complimentary plans for life after the EU. A mark of the impending disaster is the growing number of countries making detailed plans to survive the economic tsunami.
If the Euro and the EU vanish into the dustbin of history, the guilty people will be the Franco-German political elite who thought they could dispense with unreliable democracy and build a new National Socialist Europe.
BSD News Desk