The end game, or yet another application of sticky plaster, is looming for Greece.
Greece is in a mess – it seems everyone now accepts that.
The illusive question is – how do we sort the mess out?
The majority opinion has finally come round to the conclusion that Greece is best left to sort its own problems out. That implies a return to a national currency and the freedom to take the decisions that Greeks can accept and embrace.
The minority view from the Eurocrats is that the EuroZone cannot fail because failure means failure for the EUSSR Project to form a new super state to take on the USA.
Merkel has said that Germany will do everything it can and that has been dismissed as rhetoric. That could be a mistake. Certainly, Merkel is flying in the face of the German people and even her inadequate commitments to the EuroZone may be declared illegal by a German Court. That justifies the view that she was just posturing to prop up the financial markets when they opened on Monday.
This week is D-Day for Greece with the new Greek Prime Minister maintaining that Greece wants to remain in the Euro, is committed to spending cuts, but insisting that earlier commitments should be delayed for two years. Germany is maintaining that a deal is a deal and there is no scope for reducing interest rates on the bailouts already paid to Greece and no room to allow the spending cuts, on which the bailouts were based, to be delayed for two years.
The Greek Prime Minister is not being intransigent but realistic. He knows that a failure by Germany to promise to keep propping his Government up with German tax euros means that his Government falls. The General Elections saw the Greeks offered a stark choice of voting for Parties who would accept the public spending cuts and the terms of the bailouts provided that the Eurocrats agreed to a two year delay and reduction of interest rates, or voting for Parties who condemned outright the dictats from Brussels and Berlin. The result was a slender majority in favour of accepting the terms after renegotiation, interest rate reduction and delays of two years to the spending cuts. In effect, Greece said it wanted Germany to keep bailing it out and allowing it to continue spending above its income. Any failure to accept that Greek position would result in extreme public disorder and probably civil war.
In Germany, the rules have been changed to allow German troops to be deployed outside German borders and for troops to carry weapons on home territory. Perhaps what Merkel meant was that the TanteJu trimotors would be fired up again and German rule would be parachuted in Greece. After all, its is only a few weeks since the German stooge who was parachuted in as Prime Minister was replaced by a Prime Minister elected by the Greeks.
With many conflicting expectations and Brussels insisting that Sunday is the deadline for Greek surrender, the consensus is that we are rapidly approaching the end game. Then again, it could all prove to be another non-event, a bit more sticky tape, lots of fine words, promises that are less than they appear and another crisis next week. The only fly in the Eurocrats’ ointment is that the creditors are getting very impatient and, whatever the horror stories, the markets have already factored in a messy Greek default and exit from the Euro. The markets have also been working hard to factor in a Greek exit being closely followed by Spain and Italy. It remains to be seen what will happen if the EuroZone implodes during the next six months, or if indeed it has that long to go. What is now coming to be the majority view is that a EuroZone implosion is inevitable, it will affect economies around the world, but it is better for it to happen now rather than to build up a greater head of steam to create a more devastating explosion.