A exercise in ‘spin’ as the British Prime Minister is followed by a car carrying his red box and cars carrying his bodyguards
2011 is starting for the Brokeback Coalition with a growing revolt of neglected Tory MPs
The New Year starts with a growing revolt by Tory MPs who have been seriously neglected by the Brokeback Coalition. Since the May elections when the Tories became the largest single Party at Westminster, and won more votes than other Parties, Cameron has bent over backwards to appease the Whigs who won the fewest number of MPs and were divided 70% to 30% against coalition with the Tories. Appeasement has resulted in policies that are a complete counter to key elements of the Tory manifesto which most voters favoured in May. What has proved a final straw for long suffering Tory MPs is news that Cameron and Clogg are planning a new Whig Party to stand in 2015 for election. The new party could be called the Whig Dem Con but that may be too honest. Commentators believe that 30% of the current Whig Party could support the new Whig Dem Con Party and as much as 10% of the Tory Party might be tempted to support the new Party. Cameron is hoping that he can Con most Tories into supporting the new Party and Clogg is just hoping to be able to find a way to hang on to the trappings of power as Deputy Prime Minister. The prospects are not good because the probability is that the new Party will simply further fragment British politics and make it impossible for a single Party to win an overall majority.
The wild card is the UK Independence Party which could benefit greatly by the turmoil in the three old failed Parties and become a true Centre Right Party. Its key policies currently enjoy an overwhelming support in opinion polling across the British political spectrum. It needs to draw support from all three old failed Parties and recent research shows this is already happening. The question is – will it happen fast enough in time for the next General Election?
Since its formation as a single issue Party, well to the right, the UK Independence Party has been maturing and moving towards the Centre ground without changing its core policies. It now has a real portfolio of policies that would be required for government, but it continues to select election candidates who are not self-serving professional politicians who make up the majority of the the three old failed Parties. The Whig proposals to change the British electoral system could ironically benefit the UK Independence Party which came second at the last European Parliamentary election under proportional representation. Tory and Labour MPs are combining to vote against the Whig electoral changes so the next British General Election may still be fought on a first-past-the-post system, but possibly with new constituency boundaries to correct the imbalance caused by Blair Brown Regime vote rigging that produced a hung Parliament in May when the overwhelming majority of voters wanted the Blair Brown Regime to be emasculated.
The question for the UK Independence Party is how to manage maturity. As support comes from new groups of voters, it inevitably changes to Party they support. That makes the Party more electable but it means that some of the policies that are strongly supported by the current core membership may change and the Party Leader Farage will have to carry support along with him. However, this will make the UK Independence Party a more interesting political force and could break the strangle hold of corrupt and self-serving professional politicians in the UK and in Europe.
The other interesting possibility is that Tory MPs may defect to the UK Independence Party. Rumours are circulating that twenty Tories are now considering joining the UK Independence Party with more teetering towards following them. If this happens the Brokeback Coalition will fall. As a result, it is in the interests of the UK Independence Party to persuade the potential joiners to delay their defection to give more time to prepare for a General Election.