Waiting for the Crunch

Euro

Time to hang the “Do Not Resuscitate” sign round the Euro’s neck

 

As the EuroZone’s witless leaders try to pretend that everything is economically wonderful, the markets push the Euro towards extinction.

BSD

Firetrench Directory

The Euro crisis has been running so long that its dangerously easy to believe its rubbish but indestructible rubbish. The EuroZone leaders would have us believe that Greece will vote the ‘right’ way this time and the problem is solved.

Nothing could be further from the truth and the storm clouds are gathering around the world.

China, India, Brazil, Russia are all showing signs of slowing down. Not surprising when their European markets are closing down. The US is running out of steam after Obama forced money into the system to shore up his re-election prospects. It looks like his hoped for artificial boom has peaked early and lower than expected so that Europe can forget about the US pulling them out of the mire.

If Greece votes for more conservatives in this second election it may be possible to form a government that will delay the Greek exit from the Euro by up to six months. For the Greeks this is bad news. The best they can hope for is a decade of German rule and austerity that will make the last six months seem like Utopia and a time of plenty. The problem is that gravity always wins and the longer it is resisted, the harder the fall.

Greeks will end up with yet more debt and a slower recovery once they are free of the Euro.

The Greek situation is now almost irrelevant because Spain and Italy have become the new targets for the the money markets. They have the capacity to break up the EuroZone very quickly.

Some highly respected speculators are now coming to expect a Greek exit during the next three months with Spain and Italy rapidly following. However, they admit that their predictions may be wildly optimistic. They do point out that this is the holiday season and June, July and August are not months that are prone to major decisions. They still believe that it will not be until September that the crisis begins to boil and become uncontrollable. That is similar to the planning timetables for many countries outside the EuroZone who are now urgently planning for the end of the Euro.

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