For months, Germany has been seen as having taken over Europe and started to replace the politicians in Greece and other EU member States that it dislikes, prompting an angry reaction by Greek cartoonists. However, Reich Kanzler Merkel has just been rocked by German opinion polls.
It seems that BSD has had it right in identifying a German desire to dump the Euro.
An overwhelming number of Germans, who get to express their feelings at the ballot box next year, are in favour of leaving the EuroZone. That number is likely to increase in the coming months as more Euro Zone members seek massive bailouts.
Merkel now has a choice of standing firm and ignoring her voters or starting to come down very hard on the weaker Southern EuroZone members in the hope that this will help her to stay in power in Germany and continue ignoring her voters at home.
Now that the lid is firmly off, there will be more polls on German opinion and what is beginning to emerge is that Germans now see themselves as bigger than the EU. A consequence of reunification and renewed national awareness, Germany is clearly demonstrating that what kept peace in Europe after 1945 was never the EU and always an American backed NATO.
It is ironic that the political course of the EU to an undemocratic super state ruled by unelected bureaucrats under the claim that it was maintaining peace and unity in Europe is now proving to be the force for disunity and growing nationalism.
For the Euro, this is a death blow because it is now under pressure from both ends. The weak profligate southern EuroZone Members want to cling to the pampered existence that requires massive injections of funds from the more fiscally prudent northern members, but their needs require more money than the northern states can now muster, pulling in non-Euro countries and the IMF to make up the difference.
Now we have the Germans threatening a pullout from the Euro Zone which places their northern neighbours in a very difficult position of having to decide how to prepare for their own exits from the Euro, knowing that a German exit could cause them significant damage unless they are ready to leave immediately, or have already left.
At the same time, European failures to produce any credible Euro recovery plan are now heavily impacting on China, India and other previously growing economies, to add to the underlying dangers that they were already outstripping their infrastructure and may find growth increasingly difficult to maintain even if the global economy begins to recover. One recent warning was provided by the series of major power failures in India as the country’s power generation capacity failed to meet demand causing rolling blackouts.
The world now has to consider what to do about power supplies as an energy war begins to develop. This could prove to be the next major failure economically. At present, reducing global demand is depressing the demand for power. The current depression will eventually be reversed even if it takes several more years than predicted, but when recovery starts, the power supplies may not have been improved to support new growth.
This will also place new pressure on climarte fraudsters who have been engineering “Green” energy policies that equate to reduced power generation.
To these serious global dangers has been added a recent appreciation that the military are starting to take over in China and are already making the Foreign Policy decisions.
History teaches us that economic depression leads to new tensions and extremists emerge in positions of power, increasing the risk of major conflict.