Defeat of the Forth Reich?


As in 1918, France again celebrates a defeat of Germany

As France, Italy and Spain crow over what they believe is a defeat for an increasingly hated Germany, does this really mean the end of the Forth Reich before it began?


Firetrench Directory

The announcement that Merkel had buckled under the combined weight of France, Italy and Spain may have been premature.

Merkel’s agreement to using bailout money to prop up bankers did not promise any new money from German taxpayers. The initial assumption was that this lack of detail was unimportant because the European Central Bank would have to replenish its funds ready for bailouts of Greece, Spain and Italy. That replenishment would come mainly from German taxpayers and be forced on them. The assumption could be incorrect because it would destroy Merkel and her Party as German taxpayers vented their rage at yet more of their hard earned money being stolen by profligate EuroZone Members.

This could mean that Merkel has sealed the fate of the Euro because any refusal by Germany to replenish ECB funds would mean that there is no money for more national bailouts.

The devil is always in the detail. The apparent agreement from yet another EuroZone emergency summit is more of an aspiration than a real commitment, demonstrating that the EuroZone leaders have learned nothing over the two years of Euro criticality.

What Merkel did not commit to was any firm timetable for pushing more German cash into the hands of France and the other profligate EuroZone countries. All she did was the minimum necessary to avoid a EuroZone implosion during the next two weeks. It may even be enough to keep the markets at bay until September. The unsettling indications are that the latest EuroFudge is already unraveling. Although markets rallied, senior market personalities were already pointing out the defects behind the grand promises. There is a growing appreciation that a fundamental problem lies at the heart of the Euro, whatever the leaders may say. Germany likes rules and is prepared to follow all that are agreed. Even the reluctant German taxpayers would grudgingly agree to releasing more money if they were convinced that all EuroZone countries would hand their financial sovereignty to Germany and accept German orders. Unfortunately, France is a country that is very keen to adopt new rules and to then promptly ignore them. Spain, Italy and Greece have demonstrated that they are happy to falsify accounts to appear to be following rules while doing the opposite. The only way to resolve the Euro problems is to restructure the system so that only those countries that can agree to a central fiscal control, and keep to the bargin, are allowed into the EuroZone. That would see a majority of current EuroZone countries returning to their own currencies. As this is against the policies of the Eurocrats in Brussels it looks like the EuroZone crisis will stagger on until the markets enforce a restructuring which will probably main the end of the Euro.

Perhaps the saddest part of the latest summit has been that a project intended to bring Europe together in love and harmony is now bringing back all of the nationalist hatred that led to two very destructive wars. Language in the Italian press could have come from 1912 or 1938. This demonstrates that only a thin coating has covered the old emnities and the Euro crisis is breaking down this shell.

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