The “liberal” media and the old failed Parties were desperately trying to explain the MEP Earthquake in the traditional Left, Right, Centre, language of yesterday.
As the results of the election for the European Parliament became available last night, it was immediately clear to everyone except the old failed Parties that something extraordinary had happened.
In Britain Ukip swept convincingly into first place in Great Britain. It was a predicated result but even so it was impressive and amazing for a new Party that only five years ago was ignored as a non-event. What was as impressive as the headline numbers of Ukip MEPs, was that the surge of support for this Party had come from across the British Isles and across the British political spectrum. However, that didn’t stop either the “liberal” media or the old failed Parties trying to spin the results to claim some form of success for them and trying to explain everything in the language of yesterday.
Nigel Farage has led Ukip to first place in British politics and that is an incredibly impressive achievement in an amazingly short time (in terms of political timescales), but he was only able to do this with a growing level of broad support and an increasingly professional support team. The “liberal elite” are already predicting a Ukip bubble bursting and forecasting that “their” voters will return to them for the 2015 General Election, saying that they “got the message” the “protest” vote sent and are changing in response. Reality is that all they hope to do is continue lying through their teeth and promising everything to everyone, prior to dropping on all the “cast iron” promises on the day after the General Election. It is deeply depressing to see that the old failed Parties have learned nothing and continue to hold an arrogant sense of entitlement.
In France, the National Front swept to an equally impressive victory over their old failed Parties. Again this result had been forecast in advance but was still deeply impressive. As with the early forms of Ukip, the National Front had begun as a Far Right Party in the old traditional description of politics. Like Ukip, it has developed under its current leader Marie Le Pen into a much more complex political entity with a broad range of support and deliberate efforts to remove any racist elements. Its development has been much more recent than Ukip’s which may still prevent Ukip MEPs working directly with French National Front MEPs, but that could all change if Ukip develops confidence that the National Front has taken difficult decisions and purged its extreme elements. As both Parties are now part of a new politics, they may well vote for similar things, even if this is done without joining a common group.
With the partial exception of Germany, the earthquake has swept across Europe, but the Parties that benefited from the earthquake are not from any one part of the old political spectrum. Some are extreme Parties from the old Left or Right. Several hold some very unpleasant policies that could fairly be described as neo-Nazi. Even in Germany, rebellion is growing and at the next European Elections, Germany could well see its own political Earthquake.
What is already clear is that the results are part of a very complex process of change sweeping Europe. What is common to national voters and the new Parties is a feeling of anger at the professional political class that has grown up in Europe and is strangling freedom and economics while enriching the political elite and a grossly over-staffed and overpaid Eurocrat class that is even less accountable to voters than the politicians.
The question is whether the incompetence, arrogance and greed of the political elite of the old failed Parties will force a complete break down of European co-operation, or lead to a more productive form of European co-operation that allows each member State to co-operate, when and where it chooses in its own national interests, while enjoying free trade and the celebration of national differences and heritages.
In Britain, Ukip has already built a number of large areas where it has a reliable political machine. That machine will spread across the country and pattern analysis produces some very interesting possibilities. Based patterns during the last four years, it suggests that Ukip could achieve the support of more than 43%, building on what is now an established growth pattern. Before the period, Ukip only had a few MEPs, then it started to come fourth in local and national elections. Into the last four years and Ukip has steadily moved from frequent fourth to third and then second in an increasing number of areas of Great Britain. In the last two years, Ukip has won an increasing number of local elections and come close at by-elections to winning its first Westminster seat. If the patterns are maintained, Ukip could even win an outright majority of seats in the 2015 national General Election. It would also see a rapidly expanding support in Scotland which is why the SNP are becoming increasingly desperate to smear Ukip, seeing it as the real opposition to the SNP.
Only a year ago, few considered Ukip a serious British political Party. The local elections wins started to change perceptions, reinforced by even greater advances in 2014. Pundits are coming to accept that Ukip will win seats in Westminster even though this was considered a pipe dream only months ago. So, incredible though it may seem today, Ukip may not just win a large number of Westminster seats, but win enough to form a Government in 2015. If that is achieved, Farage and his Party will have created an earthquake off the scale and completely recast the political map at all levels.
Even maintaining the success already achieved would be a great achievement, but further dramatic growth is possible because, once a voter has changed a lifetime’s political support to a new Party, or voted for the first time, it becomes much easier to continue supporting the new Party. Now that Ukip is a serious main stream Party with greater promise ahead, new supporters will flock to it and financial supporters will provide the means to contest ever available British seat at local and national level. It looks increasingly as though Ukip has reached the tipping point where dramatic fresh expansion is practical. This will not be without challenge, but challenge worth rising to. We live in interesting times.