Election 2015 – The Numbers and the Lies

 

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Nigel Farage has had an incredible few weeks and emerged as a true statesman and leader

As the exit polls increase in volume, the likely outcome today is looking exciting and very different from the tedious vote intention polling and the blatant Brussels Broadcasting Corporation propaganda funded by the European Commission.

 

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From the intentions polling averages, it appears that there had been no significant moment from the start of the campaign. This was at odds with private Party polling and the very negative campaigning of all but Ukip, which alone has run a good natured and positive campaign, may be explained by the exit polls today.

The Tories and Labour do appear to be dead heated with the Tories probably ending up with a handful of seats more than Labour. Taking the intention polls percentages, and assuming no major errors in taking the figures across the UK, Labour should have ended up with fewer votes but more seats than the Tories. The Greens would have struggled to retain their single seat, Plaid would have at best ended with two seats and Ukip with 3-5 seats. The SNP late polls suggested they would win all Scottish seats but an average over the campaign would have suggested less than 50. This could prove very bad news for Scots because a backlash is coming.

The exit polls to mid day suggest something very different, with Labour doing better in Scotland than predicted, the LibDems retaining 2 seats in Scotland and SNP falling well short of their claims yesterday. The Conservatives appear to be going better in numbers of seats, but not well enough to have even the power they had in 2010 to form a short coalition.

If the exit polls are correct, Ukip could be on course to cause a major earthquake. The percentage share currently looks better than 20%, inline with private Ukip polls through the campaign. There is inadequate information currently to predict what this means for the number of seats that Ukip will win but simple maths indicates this will be well into double figures. For Ukip, the significance is that they could have a strong hand in negotiating with other Parties, but even more important that they will have an excellent platform for the next General Election with the possibility of achieving a working majority. That is a truly outstanding performance.

Rumours are beginning to circulate that Labour is trying to stitch a deal together with the Tories to form a coalition after Friday to freeze the SNP out.

The LibDems are already sulking and suggesting that their Strategy now is to destabilize whatever coalition is pulled together to force another General Election before the end of the year.

This could be a very lively few days ahead and the risk of some serious problems later in the month.

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