Happy Easter from Leave.EU

To celebrate Easter, this edition of Leave.EU’s newsletter hopes to offer some spring sunshine to banish the darkness descended upon us by Theresa May’s Brexit betrayal.

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This week marked the first anniversary of our formal goodbye letter to Brussels. Well behind us are the promising days of “no deal is better than a bad deal”. While that battle cry rings truer today than ever, the government’s threat to pull out of the negotiations and trade with the EU on WTO terms has waned to the point of extinction.

Last week, it emerged Cabinet ministers are now pressuring the prime minister into dropping no deal contingencies. Having exhausted £40bn of negotiating capital to entice the EU into agreeing to a foolish transition arrangement, effectively keeping Britain in the EU until 2021, Theresa May is poised to use free movement and fisheries to keep Britain attached to Brussels indefinitely.

But Brussels is in trouble, with the transition period even posing a problem for the European elite. Remainers revel in reporting bumper economic data on the continent – despite the fact that, after a lost decade of growth, the numbers are extremely average – another recession is in the offing, and it will most likely arrive before 2021. What happens then?

Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy all swallowed bitter pills of austerity at the height of the Euro crisis, with only Greece – by far the most serious case – dissenting, and even then, only momentarily. The next shock will erupt in Italy, where citizens earlier this month resoundingly told the establishment to get stuffed. This week, powerful figures on the hard left and right are calling for a grand coalition, with the centre spat out. So much for Emmanuel Macron’s centrist revolution.

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Mr Macron will fail to spur extra integration that would give Brussels the full array of levers to punish voters with tax hikes, budget cuts or even financial stimulus at the next recession. Instead, the people will revolt. The end of the Euro, at the very least, beckons.

Under such circumstances, the elites will do everything to salvage what they can of their European dream (and our nightmare) a profitable trading partnership with the UK will be a number one priority. Even Theresa May will surely then recognise it’ll be time to claw back bargaining power.

And here the EU’s careful planning may prove to be its undoing. Michel Barnier is using transition to justify a bare-bones agreement over the EU’s future trading relationship with Britain, the details will wait to be finalised just before real independence at the end of 2020. With less than a year to secure provisional agreement, Theresa May has no appetite for dissenting to Barnier’s plan.

But the prospect remains alive for the terms of this arrangement to be so vague that come the Eurozone’s financial reckoning during transition, the British government (led by Jacob Rees-Mogg perhaps?) will be in a position to reclaim the territory lost during the first year of negotiations.

Then there’s the EU’s impending budget crisis, brought about by a £15bn hole as a result of Britain’s withdrawal. May’s cowardly cash giveaway will plug it for only a few years. It was revealed this week the EU Commission plans to use profits from the 19 central banks of the Eurozone to pay for its many vanity projects. This extra cash is supposed to be transferred to national treasuries. Europeans will not stand for such daylight robbery. In its desperation to squeeze ever-increasing amounts of cash from the member states, the EU is sewing the seeds of its own destruction. May it come soon.

Even in the cosy world of the EU institutions, all is not well. The normally pliant European Parliament has accused the EU Commission of accommodating a “coup”, which saw Jean-Claude Juncker’s former chief of staff Martin Selmayr help himself to a double promotion in one day to claim the highest position in the EU’s gargantuan civil service. No other candidates applied.

The Parliament described Eurofanatic Selmayr’s “parachuting” into the top job as “stretching and possibly even overstretching the limits of the law.”

The EU’s fragility will mean little if May does not play her trump card and threaten a clean departure. If she needs a little extra boost of confidence, the PM need not look further than the Donald himself who this week dumped £60bn of targeted import tariffs on China. China owns half of the US’s $800bn trade deficit, which explains Beijing’s meek response, just $3bn in tariffs on US goods. The country in deficit is always better placed to win a trade war asserted the Wall Street Journal. Trump is putting America first, Mrs May would be well advised to do the same for Britain.

The US and China make up more than a third of global GDP – this is where the focus of a future British trade policy should be, not on trying to placate a dysfunctional European Union that remains utterly dependent on us as beneficiaries of a huge trade deficit.

As Jacob Rees-Mogg rightly pointed out this week a No Deal scenario would be just fine for Britain, while the same outcome would be catastrophic for the European Union. It’s time for May to wake up and act tough instead of squandering our incredible negotiating position.

But with so much happening in the world, this weekend offers a perfect time to take a step back and reflect on the future with optimism.

We hope you all enjoy precious time with friends and family and have a restful Easter.

Kind regards,
The Leave.EU Team

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