In their new book “Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years”, Avery and Singer conclude, from studying the work of more than 500 other scientists, that climate change is a natural cyclical event.
Singer says, “This can all be explained by the Sun’s activity”.
What the new book most clearly demonstrates is that scientists are unable to agree on the nature of climate change, or on its causes.
Avery and Singer have latched onto a 1,500 year climate cycle and other scientists have talked of natural cycles of 10,000 years and 150,000 years. What they have in common is that they all see repeating cycles through history. They can see these cycles from studying written records and art, and from studying tree growth and ice cores. Some trace climate change in rock and soil samples and a few point to events mythologized in religious testaments. It is also likely that there are a series of cycles within cycles, so that the starting point could involve periods so large that we have difficulty in understanding them, seeing only the much shorter sub-cycles.
They also share one other important factor at present. They are not welcomed by the Church of Global Warming and all those who see political and financial advantage in promoting the ‘Gospel according the Church of Global Warming’.
A large number of scientists see repeating climate patterns, but they differ on attributing cause. The reality may be that they are all correct in part.
Where Singer and Avery blame the Sun, they are talking about the fluctuating radiation output from this star, which is recognized to exert considerable effect on the Earth. Logically, if the Sun becomes hotter, or sends out plumes of radiation as a result of solar storms, the Earth will respond to that increased radiation. In simplistic terms, a hotter Sun should mean an increase in Earth temperature, but that does not automatically mean that the effects are sudden like an infrared heater, seeing temperature dropping as soon as the radiation reduces. In reality, the Earth has a molten core that has scum floating on the surface and water collects in the indentations in the top surface of that scum and within the strata of the scum, with a narrow band of atmosphere between this composite surface and space. This means that one possibility is that solar radiation will affect the core temperature and produce delayed results, possibly delayed by more than 1,000 years. In the same way, the radiation will affect the atmosphere, as will changes in the scum and the core beneath.
When mountains are thrown up, they have roots beneath them reaching down into the mantel. When these roots break off, the mountain range will begin to subside. Pressures build at weak points in the scum and either produce shock waves, as earthquakes, or force molten material up to the surface as volcanoes and volcanic explosions. We already know that volcanoes produce large quantities of gas and dust which rises through the atmosphere and acts as a filter reducing the volume of solar radiation, causing a dramatic fall in global temperature for many years.
We already know that increasing global temperatures coincide with increased earthquake and volcanic activity, followed by natural atmospheric pollution that sees temperatures fall again. This demonstrates the dynamic and self-repairing nature of the Earth. What we do not know is – what is cause? and what is effect? We are also unable to predict seismic activity although we are beginning to build early warning systems that may produce data that will enable earlier warning to be given, eventually leading to a system for accurate prediction.
To these powerful drivers of our climate, is added the ‘wobble’ factor. The centrifugal force generated by the rotation of the Earth is in conflict with the gravitational force exerted by the Sun as the Earth orbits around it. This means that the Earth is tilted over at an angle, but that the angle does not remain the same. Some scientists speculate that the consequence of these two competing forces would be that the wobble would become so extreme that the Earth would flip on its axis or that the orbit would become erratic. There are competing theories about the relationship of these forces and the moderating forces that act upon them. What we cannot predict is how the axis will tilt from one year to the next, or what fluctuations may occur in the orbital path of the Earth, taking it further away from the Sun or bringing it closer.
The Earth is one of a number of planets that orbit the Sun and each planet exerts some force on its neighbours. This force varies because the orbits result in periodic alignment of the planets around the Sun but this is a rare cyclic event. The Moon orbiting the Earth is large enough to exert a significant force on the Earth which results in the tidal activity of the oceans.
The roots of astrology lie in the study of the relationships of forces exerted by the bodies in the solar system and the other solar systems that stretch out into deepest space. As we believe that the Universe is still expanding, forces from beyond our Solar system would be getting weaker. Astrology claims to be able to interpret the effects these forces have on the lives of individuals. Skeptics claim that astrology is a confidence trick, but they ignore the fact that there are cosmic forces and all objects have a capacity to store force in some form. It is a long step from there to claiming that these forces can predict exact events as they affect individuals, but it does demonstrate that forces radiate out across the Universe and each force has some effect on everything within its environment. However, there are so many forces at play that the range of effects is bewildering and difficult to appreciate within the short span of recorded history and the even shorter span of individual human lives.
Mankind has always has a masochist fascination in doom mongering. Every religion forecasts some cataclysmic event where the world ends and offers salvation for all who accept every part of the faith on which that religion is based. In that respect the Church of Global Warming is just another faith that offers salvation in return for belief and makes its message more acceptable by providing the confessional, self-flagellation and the option to purchase indulgences. In addition to making the harsher message acceptable to those who are not primarily masochist, the sale of indulgences creates a huge industry where the profit motive expands the power of the Church of Global Warming.
Of course none of this alters the importance of using resources wisely, but it is a form of mass manipulation that trades on fear to promote ‘quick fixes’, that produce considerable profit for some, but are eventually seen to be even more profligate or polluting.
What all of this should show us is that it is essential to recognize that life and the universe are infinitely complex elements that require further study and greater common sense. Charging blindly off in one direction and denying all alternatives is never productive.