Oh No Not Another Fine Mess!!!
“Call Me Dave” Cameron could be the big loser in the French Presidential elections.
Cameron has had a torrid few weeks, alleviated by the singular failure of Milliband to exploit his current weakness.
Having offended most of his own supporters with a series of failures and a very unpopular budget that came down hard against pensioners who have already been squeezed hard by Cameron to support fat cats and bankers, Cameron made a fundamental error by endorsing Sarkosi and Obama in their forthcoming elections.
Always a bad move to get involved in another country’s internal politics and a poor choice to support presidential candidates who have little support at home. The worst of all situations is if Hollande and Romney win in France and the US respectively. Both would have to work with Britain but it would be an uncomfortable relationship, knowing that Cameron had publically supported their opponents.
However, the real loss for Cameron may be at home. Le Pen has demonstrated that the old failed parties in France are as disliked by French voters as their counterparts through Europe are distrusted by their voters. Her major vote gains have demonstrated that her Party could contend for Government. That is bad news for Cameron because it also demonstrates that the UK Independence Party could achieve a major share of the vote at Westminster. In one General Election that might not be enough to translate into a significant number of seats, but it would provide a credible platform at the following Election.
The UK Independence Party also has the advantage that it has now overtaken the LibDems as the third Party in the UK with local elections and European Parliamentary elections preceding the next UK General Election. In the local elections, the UK Independence Party still has relatively few candidates, but it could demonstrate strong percentage gains, encouraging fund donations and being in a stronger position at the European elections. If they can obtain more funding and work hard, they could overtake the Conservatives to become the leading British Party in the European Parliament. That would be a huge step forward and might become sufficient to give them a working majority in Westminster after 2015.
In addition, the UK Independence Party has already welcomed defectors from the other Parties and if the final years of the Coalition Government continue as the last few weeks, the UK Independence Party could gain its first MPS through Westminster defections. A number of sitting MPs have been in talks with the UK Independence Party to explore the possibilities for defection.
The wild card is the global economic state. With markets in turmoil over the prospects for Europe, a series of factors in European national elections could result in the Euro ceasing to exist by September. The Eurocrats are still claiming that such an outcome would destroy the world but the reality could be very different. If EuroZone members returned to their old currencies, they could each float to find a new real level instead of the current artificial level that gives Germany a greatly under valued currency and Greece a vastly over valued currency. Through the Euro Zone, no member currently has a realistic national valuation, either being too highly valued or greatly under valued.
As the Euro is a politically motivate currency, its failure could produce a major reorganization of European politics and Parties. In the process, the main losers would be the old failed Parties that have all become divorced from their voters and interested only in making a very comfortable living for professional politicians who have little in common with their voters and even less interest in them and their needs.